Yogi Berra might have been referring to the solar industry when he said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But that never stops people from trying! As we look back at the many predictions about the solar industry for 2012, it’s instructive to see how they stacked up to reality.
The beginning of the year brought a mixed bag of forecasts, as the industry looked forward to continuing growth coupled with serious risks -- an oversupply of panels, diminishing subsidies in the U.S. and Europe, and a trade war with China.
Predictions for 2012 were numerous and all over the map. But some clear trends emerged.
Global predictions
We’ll see consolidation as the industry matures. One thing everyone from GigaOM to Renewable Energy World to the New York Times seemed to agree on for 2012 was that the solar industry was due for a lot of consolidation -- which was only to be expected in a competitive emerging industry. This bid for survival of the fittest, many argued, would lead to a stronger industry with clear winners, those who could provide the best products at the best prices.
VERDICT:
Predictions were close. Bankruptcies and consolidations have indeed continued in 2012. But the shakeout is far from over. A Green Tech Media report released late last year predicted that another 180 solar panel makers will likely go out of business or be bought by 2015. In fact, at the end of 2012 China announced it’s encouraging consolidations and letting some of its weaker manufacturers go out of business. That’s likely a positive move on the part of China, one that will result in a stronger manufacturing industry overall. Consolidation is also expected to continue with downstream players. And we’re seeing panel manufacturers get into the development business, either on their own or with partners -- which some consider key to the future of Western solar manufacturing. We’ll watch these trends in 2013, as the industry’s evolution continues to play out.
19 - 29 GW will be installed globally, 2.8 GW in the U.S. While Energy Trend forecast only 19 GW in global installations for 2012, most others had higher expectations. HSBC predicted a flat market with 25.5 GW of global solar installations in 2012, down from 2011’s 27.4 GW, while IMS Research expected 26–29 GW of new PV capacity in 2012. A good year was expected in the U.S., with total installations forecast at 2.8 GW. CleanTechnica didn’t provide specific figures but predicted record amounts of solar installations in the U.S., for both homes and businesses.
VERDICT:
Predictions were mostly off -- but in a good way! Solar installations both worldwide and in the U.S. exceeded expectations. The SEIA/GTM 2012 Q3 report forecast 31 GW in global demand, and as more information became available IHS reported that totals reached 32 GW. For the U.S, the SEIA/GTM report forecast a total of 3.2 GW of PV installed in 2012, up from 1.9 GW in 2011.
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The beginning of the year brought a mixed bag of forecasts, as the industry looked forward to continuing growth coupled with serious risks -- an oversupply of panels, diminishing subsidies in the U.S. and Europe, and a trade war with China.
Predictions for 2012 were numerous and all over the map. But some clear trends emerged.
Global predictions
We’ll see consolidation as the industry matures. One thing everyone from GigaOM to Renewable Energy World to the New York Times seemed to agree on for 2012 was that the solar industry was due for a lot of consolidation -- which was only to be expected in a competitive emerging industry. This bid for survival of the fittest, many argued, would lead to a stronger industry with clear winners, those who could provide the best products at the best prices.
VERDICT:
Predictions were close. Bankruptcies and consolidations have indeed continued in 2012. But the shakeout is far from over. A Green Tech Media report released late last year predicted that another 180 solar panel makers will likely go out of business or be bought by 2015. In fact, at the end of 2012 China announced it’s encouraging consolidations and letting some of its weaker manufacturers go out of business. That’s likely a positive move on the part of China, one that will result in a stronger manufacturing industry overall. Consolidation is also expected to continue with downstream players. And we’re seeing panel manufacturers get into the development business, either on their own or with partners -- which some consider key to the future of Western solar manufacturing. We’ll watch these trends in 2013, as the industry’s evolution continues to play out.19 - 29 GW will be installed globally, 2.8 GW in the U.S. While Energy Trend forecast only 19 GW in global installations for 2012, most others had higher expectations. HSBC predicted a flat market with 25.5 GW of global solar installations in 2012, down from 2011’s 27.4 GW, while IMS Research expected 26–29 GW of new PV capacity in 2012. A good year was expected in the U.S., with total installations forecast at 2.8 GW. CleanTechnica didn’t provide specific figures but predicted record amounts of solar installations in the U.S., for both homes and businesses.
VERDICT:
Predictions were mostly off -- but in a good way! Solar installations both worldwide and in the U.S. exceeded expectations. The SEIA/GTM 2012 Q3 report forecast 31 GW in global demand, and as more information became available IHS reported that totals reached 32 GW. For the U.S, the SEIA/GTM report forecast a total of 3.2 GW of PV installed in 2012, up from 1.9 GW in 2011.Read more:
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